Soybean Magic
Joe Victor, May 21st, 2009
Page 2
There you have it, simply stated USDA was able to discover an extra 113 million bushels of soybean supply within its "residual use" accounting column to possibly ensure soybean end stocks would not slide below 100 million bushels.
You may find it interesting, USDA presently has a rather "ripe" 73 million bushels of soybean residual use factored into the present balance sheet, just ready for its picking. The question is, just when could USDA harvest this particular residual? Will USDA hold out until the July WASDE, after its June quarterly stocks report or discover less soybeans were lost during handling, or on farm extrusion or chalk it up to an oversight statistical error, sooner? Remember, less than a year ago USDA was able to discover an extra 113 million bushels of soybean and if USDA decides to go statistically negative once more in 2009, may have room to discover as much as 109 million bushels at the stroke of a pen.
Questions remain, could USDA find the magic necessary to ensure adequate old crop end stocks within the next month or two? How could its decision impact your old crop and for that fact new crop marketing, or investment strategies?..........Joe Victor
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